Gold appears to have found some support around the November 2019 lows from 1,446 to 1,455 – pivoting from this region – and is currently capped by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
Both the declining Tenkan-Sen line and the MACD are continuing to back the drop, with the Tenkan-Sen line completing a bearish crossover of the flattened blue Kijun-Sen line and the continuing of the MACD to hold in the negative zone below its red trigger line. Moreover, the 50- and 100-day SMAs are reflecting some signs of weakness in positive sentiment. That said, both the RSI and the stochastics lines are hovering just above their oversold regions, warning of possible upside corrections.
If the 200-day SMA continues to restrict the price, initial support could come from the 1,455 to 1,446 region of lows from November, which also encompasses the three-and-a-half-month low of 1,451. Diving past the 1,446 level, the 1,430 level from August 2 could provide some hindrance ahead of the 1,400 psychological number.
Otherwise, moving above the 200-day SMA at 1,502, immediate resistance could come from the 1,510 level, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 1,703.36 to 1,451, and the nearby high of 1,516 overhead. Surpassing this, the 100-day SMA at 1,536 coupled with the lower band of the Ichimoku cloud could halt the ascent, ahead of the 38.2% Fibo of 1,548 and the swing high of 1,554. Appreciating further, the 1,562 resistance, Tenkan-sen and upper band of the cloud could prevent the price from testing the 50.0% Fibo of 1,577.
The near-term outlook is negative; however, if the intact bigger positive picture keeps the price above the 1,455 – 1,446 region, a neutral-to-bullish bias could unfold, increasing the odds for a move back up.
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