USD/JPY consolidates at 50.0% Fibonacci, squeezed by Bollinger bands.

USD/JPY is currently resting at the 108.43 level, which is the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 112.39 to 104.45. The pair appears to be adopting a short-term sideways move, something also reflected by the mostly flat 100-day simple moving average (SMA), the convergence of the 200- and 40-day SMAs and the price squeeze by the Bollinger bands.

The technical oscillators suggest that upside momentum has dried up. The MACD remains in the positive zone below its red trigger line but is starting to flatten out, while the RSI is presently flat at its neutral mark.

If sellers start to pick up, steering the price below the 40-day SMA currently at the 50.0% Fibo of 108.43, immediate support could come from the nearby lower-Bollinger band. Piercing lower, the 100-day SMA at 107.72 and the 38.2% Fibo of 107.48 could challenge the bears ahead of the swing low near the 23.6% Fibo of 106.33.

Alternatively, if buyers resurface and push above 109.00, where the mid-Bollinger band and the 200-day SMA reside, the 61.8% Fibo at 109.36 coupled with the upper Bollinger band could restrict additional gains. Should buying pressure persist, the price could rise towards the 109.92 resistance, and if this is also breached, the focus could turn to the 110.67 swing highs of May 21 and the gap at the start of May.

In brief, the short-term bias looks neutral and a break either above 109.36 or below the recent swing low would determine the next direction.


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This information is not considered as investment advice or investment recommendation but instead a marketing communication. This material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

Source: XM

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