NZD/JPY overcomes 200-SMA; bullish crosses detected.
NZD/JPY’s upside correction overcame the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on September 9 following a rebound on the newly formed base of 0.6670.
Despite the MACD and the RSI moving in bullish territory, both indicators have slowed down recently, suggesting that the rally may take a breather in the short-term. The implied decreasing positive momentum in the price is drawing some caution as bullish crosses have occurred between the 21- and 200-period SMAs, as well as between the 50- and 100-period SMAs.
If buying interest is revived over the resistance of 69.15, the bulls could move to test the 69.76 obstacle which is the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 73.23 to 66.30. Thrusting higher, the 70.25 level could hinder a further climb to encounter the 61.8% Fibo of 70.57 before 71.50 can play out.
If the bears manage to pull the price back below the 68.95 support, which is the 38.2% Fibo, the price could initially stall in the crossroads of the 21- and 200-period SMAs before testing the 23.6% Fibo of 67.93 and the 50-period SMA. Lower, if the 67.55 support gives way, traders could shift focus towards the 66.70 level of lows and the eighty-one-month low of 66.30.
Overall the short-term picture is bullish, and a close above 70.57 would confirm it. A drop under the 200-period SMA would resume a neutral-to-bearish outlook.
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