USD/TRY has been making lower highs and lower lows since early May, retracing more than half of the bullish wave with a bottom at 5.154 and a top at 6.243.
The smooth recovery in the MACD and the upward-sloping RSI are currently reflecting a bearish-to-neutral bias for the short-term as long as the former holds around its red signal line and the latter below 50.
Traders may ask for a closing price above 5.780 to allocate more funds to the market. Such a move would clearly violate the ongoing downward pattern, shifting resistance up to 5.930 once the 38.2% Fibonacci of 5.826 is breached too. Earlier the bulls may also meet a barrier between the descending line and the 50% Fibonacci of 5.700.
Alternatively, a slide below 5.500 could see a retest of the 4 ½-month low of 5.446. In case the latter fails to hold, support could be next found somewhere near 5.360, ahead of the 5.300 level.
In the medium-term picture, the sell-off from the 6.243 peak keeps the market bearish, with the falling 50-day SMA fading hopes for a brighter outlook.
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