USD/TRY gaps up, but remains confined inside a triangle.

USD/TRY opened with a notable gap higher this week, to test the upper boundary of a longer-term symmetrical triangle, before retreating a little. Given also that price action is taking place between the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), the outlook is neutral for now. A break on either side of the triangle is needed to provide the directional bias.

Short-term momentum indicators don’t paint a clear picture either, with the RSI pointing up but being below 50, and the MACD testing its red trigger line.

On the upside, a break above the January peak of 5.79 and the upper end of the triangle would turn the picture to cautiously positive, opening the way for a test of the 50-day SMA and the 5.93 level. Another bullish break from there would confirm the positive bias, with the next obstacle being the May 22 high of 6.15.

On the downside, a decisive move below the crossroads of the 5.58 level, the 200-day SMA, and the lower bound of the triangle would turn the picture back to negative, opening the door for a test of 5.30.

In brief, a break above 5.79 or below 5.58 is required to change the current neutral outlook.


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This information is not considered as investment advice or investment recommendation but instead a marketing communication. This material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

Source: XM

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