AUD/USD has been driving on a slippery road the past five weeks, breaking key support around the 0.70 level to reach a fresh four-month low of 0.6921. The RSI is close to the 30 oversold level but the bears have yet to challenge the lower Bollinger band, a sign that more losses could follow before the price potentially rebounds.
Another bearish wave could find support at 0.6898, in the crossroads of the lower Bollinger band and the 23.6% Fibonacci of the down leg from 0.7392 to 0.6745. The 2016 low of 0.6826 may also come into view if the decline continues and before the 0.6745 level.
Should the price finish the session above the middle Bollinger band currently at 0.7024, the 0.7050-0.7068 area, which also includes the 50% Fibonacci, could be the next target for the bulls. A steeper rally above the latter could open the way towards the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.7145 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
In the medium-term, the drop below the 0.7000 level has switched the outlook from neutral to bearish, re-activating the downtrend started from the 0.7392 level.
In brief, AUD/USD is currently holding a bearish profile both in the short and the medium-term picture.
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