AUD/JPY tops at 2-week highs; key resistance remains at 79.80.
The four-hour AUD/JPY established another higher high in the uptrend it started recording on March 8. Trading under the two-month peak of 79.39 now the short-term risk looks neutral to negative as long as the RSI hovers around 50 and the MACD keeps losing strength below its red signal line.
A southward extension below the 61.8% Fibonacci of 78.89 of the down leg from 79.63 to 77.71 would likely target the 200-period moving average currently at 78.80. Another leg lower and particularly a decisive close below the 50% Fibonacci of 78.67 would invalidate the recent bullish move, probably staging a deeper decline towards the next key support near the 38.2% Fibonacci of 78.44.
Otherwise, the pair could meet the former resistance area around the 78.6% Fibonacci of 79.21 before heading up to the peak of 79.39. Higher, the market could search for a new top within the congested region of 79.55, though, only a significant rally above 79.80 would generate fresh buying interest for the pair. In this case, the bulls would also bring the January upward pattern back into play.
In brief, AUD/JPY faces a neutral-to-bearish bias in the short term, while in the bigger picture the market is in a range between 79.80 and 77.71.
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