AUD/USD maintains a neutral to a positive short-term outlook.

AUD/USD erased some gains after it touched the 200-day simple moving average (MA) last week, but the uptrend started in early January is still intact, with the 20-day MA suggesting that the positive tendency may hold in place as the line managed to jump back above the 50-day MA early this month.

In momentum indicators, the MACD is gaining strength above its red signal line, while the RSI is moving sideways since the start of the month together with the red Tenkan-Sen line. Hence the bias is seen as neutral-to-positive.

On the upside, the 200-day MA currently at 0.7288 could halt bullish action once again. Should the bulls prove stronger this time, with the pair closing above that line, long positions may increase towards the 0.7360 barrier. Breaking that obstacle too and surpassing the December peak of 0.7392, resistance may run up to 0.7440, where the 50% Fibonacci of the up leg from 0.8135 to 0.6745 is located.

Heading lower, the 0.72 round level could provide immediate support ahead of the 0.7150 level. Under the latter, attention may shift to the 23.6% Fibonacci of 0.7074, while decreases below 0.70 may foresee the end of the neutral cycle in the medium-term and the start of a bearish one.

Summarising AUD/USD looks neutral-to-positive in short term, while in the medium-term picture the market is still neutral.


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This information is not considered as investment advice or investment recommendation but instead a marketing communication. This material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

Source: XM

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