USD/JPY moves within a symmetrical triangle; risk neutral to bearish.
USD/JPY seems to be moving within a symmetrical triangle in the daily chart, creating lower highs and higher lows. In the short term, momentum indicators suggest that the bias is neutral to bearish as the RSI hovers marginally below its neutral threshold of 50, while the MACD has already crossed below its red signal line but continues to hold above zero.
A significant step below 112.56 and therefore out of the triangle would increase speculation that further negative corrections might follow up, with sellers probably driving the price down to the 50% Fibonacci of the up-leg from 109.76 to 114.54, near 112. Down that mark, the focus would shift to the 111.38 level where the price stopped in late October and May, while a break of that barrier could also open the door for the 110.83 level which attracted a lot of noise recently.
In case the market improves above the 23.6% Fibonacci of 113.40, all eyes will turn to the upper line of the triangle seen around 114.00. A decisive close higher could bring additional gains into the market, though only a leg above the 114.54 top would resume the bullish sentiment. Should the price surpass that peak, activating the long-term upward pattern off 104.62, traders could look for resistance around 115.50.
Looking at the bigger picture, the pair is still in an uptrend. However, with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) rising faster than the 50-day SMA, which seems to be flattening, a sense of caution has started to seep into the market.
Summarising, USD/JPY looks neutral to bearish in the short-term but still bullish in the medium-term.
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