AUD/JPY posted hefty losses after rising to a five-month peak of 83.90 in early December, falling back below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) to find support near its 50-day SMA. The pair is now trading at a one-month low, and the short-term bias seems to have shifted back to negative, though a decisive close below the 50-day SMA is needed to confirm that.
Short-term oscillators support the notion, as the RSI just dipped below its neutral 50 line, while the MACD recently crossed beneath its red trigger line; a bearish signal.
Further declines could encounter support near the 80.47 level, marked by the peaks of October 19. Even lower, the October 25 top of 79.80 would come into view, a level much more visible on the 4-hour chart. Lower still, buy orders may be found near the round figure of 79.00.
On the upside, the first wave of resistance to advances may come at 81.40, the November 23 trough. A bullish break would open the way for the 200-day SMA at 81.83, with even steeper moves higher seeing scope for a test of the 83.20 territory – defined by the highs of November 29.
Summing up, the short-term picture seems to have turned negative, but a clear close below the 50-day SMA is required to validate that.
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