The Alcoa stock price dipped to a new 16-month low of 33.00 on October 26 and it is currently hovering slightly above this level. The price remains below the medium-term descending trend line, which has been holding since April 19 within a narrow range.
Technically, the RSI indicator is pointing slightly to the upside below the 50 level, while the %K line of the stochastic oscillator printed a bullish crossover with the %D line in the oversold zone, suggesting some gains.
In case of an upside jump above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), the price could meet resistance at the 37.85 barrier, which coincides with the 40-day SMA. More increases could push the stock towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the down-leg from 62.30 to 33.00, around 39.85, before being able to re-touch the diagonal line.
However, if there is a significant violation of the 33.00 level it could increase the chances for more downside pressures towards the 29.60 support, taken from the low on June 2017.
Regarding the medium-term picture, the bearish outlook has been building up in recent months as the stock continues to record lower lows.
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