AUD/JPY is rising for the fourth straight day, further distancing itself from last week’s near two-year nadir of 78.67. Earlier on Thursday, it hit a one-week high of 80.20.
The RSI has turned higher after coming close to oversold levels, signaling a shift in momentum to the upside. The stochastics are also projecting a bullish picture in the very short-term: the %K line has moved above the slow %D one and both lines are moving sharply higher.
Should the pair extend its gains, immediate resistance may occur around the current level of the 20-day moving average line at 80.40. Further above, a barrier could come around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the January 5 to September 7 down-leg at 81.18. The 50- and 100-day MA lines lie not far above at 81.51 and 81.96 respectively.
On the downside, support to losses may take place around the near two-year low of 78.67 from September 7, with the 78 round figure possibly acting as additional support in the event of steeper losses.
Despite the recent move up, the medium-term picture continues to look predominantly bearish. The pair has been recording lower highs and lower lows over the last few months. In addition, price action is taking place below the 50- and 100-day MA lines, confirming the negative signal given by the bearish cross recorded during August, when the 50-day MA moved below the 100-day one.
Overall, the short-term bias has experienced a notable shift to the upside, while the medium-term outlook continues to look negative at the moment.
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