NZD/JPY is trading around 300 pips above the one-and-a-half-year low of 74.54 recorded in late May, while it is relatively close to Wednesday’s two-month high of 77.85.
The appreciation over the last couple of weeks is supportive of a bullish picture in the short-term. This is also projected by the positively-aligned Tenkan- and Kijun-sen lines, though the easing Kijun-sen is pointing to weakening positive momentum.
Immediate resistance to advances seems to be taking place around the current level of the 100-day moving average at 77.41. The area around this also includes the Ichimoku cloud top at 77.55, while the region around yesterday’s two-month high of 77.85 might constitute an additional barrier in case of stronger bullish movement; the 78 round figure is also part of the area around the aforementioned peak.
On the downside, support for declines could be met around the 50-day MA at 77.00. Notice that the Tenkan-sen roughly coincides with this level, while the Ichimoku cloud bottom is not far above at 77.18. Sharper declines would start shifting the focus to the Kijun-sen at 76.20.
In terms of the medium-term picture, the bearish cross recorded in late March remains in place, though price action from late May onwards, as well the price moving above the 50-day MA (currently, it is only marginally below the 100-day one), are setting a predominantly neutral medium-term outlook. Moreover, the trading activity taking place inside the Ichimoku cloud is also endorsing the view for a neutral medium-term picture.
Overall, the short-term bias is bullish though not strongly so at the moment, while the medium-term outlook is looking neutral for the most part.
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