AUD/USD posts strong gains surpassing medium-term descending trend line.
AUD/USD is looking more bullish over the last few hours as the price aggressively surpasses the medium-term tentative descending trend line in the daily timeframe. The negative momentum appears to have run out of steam as prices have been attempting to close a day above the line.
Looking at momentum oscillators in the short-term timeframe though, they suggest further upside correction movement may be on the cards. The RSI indicator lies above its neutral 50 line, detecting positive momentum, and is also pointing upwards. The MACD oscillator, already positive, holds above its trigger and zero lines. In addition, the 20-simple moving average (SMA) is sloping up, approaching the 40-SMA and getting close to creating a bullish cross.
In case of a further bullish run in the pair, immediate resistance may be found near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the down-leg from 0.8135 to 0.7410, around 0.7690. An upside break of that zone would open the way for the 50.0% Fibonacci of 0.7770. If buyers manage to push above that hurdle too, that would drive the price towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level near 0.7860.
On the flipside, if the bears retake control, price declines may stall initially near the latest lows of 0.7475. A potential downside violation of this region would send prices until the 0.7410 support barrier, raising the likelihood of more downside pressure. In such a case, the 0.7325 level could act as a barrier to the downside, identified by the May 9 low.
Broadly, in the medium-term, the outlook would shift to bullish if AUD/USD ends the day above the downtrend line.
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