AUD/USD trades above 19-week low; bullish bias in medium-term.

AUD/USD has been creating a short-term bearish movement since the end of January when it challenged a more than 2 ½-year high of 0.8135, pausing this downtrend at 19-week lows of 0.7640 over the previous week. Also, the price almost touched the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the up-leg from 0.6820 to 0.8135, which stands near the aforementioned obstacle.

The technical indicators, in the daily timeframe, turned their bias to the upside, suggesting that the softness in the market may end soon. The RSI indicator is sloping slightly north below 50 indicating that the market could increase the positive momentum and surpass this threshold in the short-term. The MACD oscillator crawled above its trigger line, creating bullish crossover and suggesting further gains at price action. However, the index is still moving in the negative territory.

If the market manages to pick up speed, the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.7735 could offer nearby resistance ahead of the 40-SMA which currently stands near 0.7785. A significant jump above the latter would break the 23.6% Fibonacci mark of 0.7825, raising chances for further increases. In this case, prices could climb towards the 0.7920 resistance level.

Should prices decline and a successful close below the medium-term ascending trend line around 0.7640, the next support level to have in mind is the 0.7500 handle, taken from the low on December 8.

In the medium-term, the outlook remains positive since prices hold above the more than 2-year rising trend line.

AUD/USD 04 APR 2018 | EconAlerts



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source: XM

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