US Inflation data, UK’s Spring Statement, US and China’s Industrial Production, New Zealand’s GDP and Eurozone’s final inflation forecasts for February in focus.
Next week’s market movers
- • US Inflation Data are expected to move the market on Tuesday.
- • New Zealand’s GDP figures could grab the market’s attention on Wednesday.
- • Eurozone’s inflation data are also set to get some attention on Friday.
On Monday, no major events are expected.
On Tuesday, during the Asian morning, Japan’s Corporate Goods Prices rate for February is due out. The rate is forecasted to decelerate to +0.2% month on month (MoM) compared to the previous reading of +0.3% MoM.
Should the actual results meet the forecast JPY could weaken albeit the market’s reaction may be somewhat muted as the difference is small. However, the indicator is important for the Japanese economy as manufacturing could be characterised as its main sector and an increase in producer’s prices could indirectly affect the inflation rate.
Also on Tuesday, UK’s spring statement will be delivered by Chancellor Philipp Hammond. The statement is expected to be rather short, however, it should contain information about UK’s Debt and growth prospects. In the 2018 Spring statement, there could be some surprises as media have suggested that UK’s debt may have decreased more than expected by 11b GBP. In any case, the speech could move the GBP under certain circumstances and we would like to give a heads up about the even.
Later, in the North American session, the US inflation data for February are to be released. Currently, the core CPI rate is forecasted to accelerate and reach +1.9% year on year (YoY) compared to the previous reading of +1.8% YoY as well as the headline CPI rate which is forecasted to accelerate to +2.2% YoY compared to the previous reading of +2.1% YoY.
Should the actual results meet the forecasts, the greenback could strengthen, as they could support the argument that inflationary pressures still exist in the US economy.
On Wednesday, during the Asian session, we get China’s industrial production growth rate for February. The rate is forecasted to tick down and reach +6.1% YoY compared to the previous reading of +6.2% YoY.
Should the actual results meet the forecast we could see AUD and NZD weakening despite the small amount of the deceleration as their respective economies are heavily exposed to China. Another argument, however, could be that the production growth rate remains at high levels, hence the reaction may be rather muted.
At the same time, China’s retail sales growth rate for February will be released. The rate is forecasted to accelerate to +9.8% YoY compared to the previous reading of +9.4% YoY.
Should the actual results meet the forecast, AUD and NZD could strengthen.
During the next Asian morning, we get New Zealand’s GDP growth rate for quarter 4 of 2017. The rate is forecasted to decelerate to +2.3% YoY compared to the previous rate of +2.7% YoY.
Should the actual results meet the forecasts we could see the NZD weakening.
On Thursday, during the North American session, we get the US Industrial Production growth rate for February. The rate is forecasted to accelerate and reach +0.2% MoM compared to the previous reading of -0.1% MoM. Should the actual results meet the forecast we see the case for the USD to strengthen as the increase is substantial and the Industrial production growth rate gets a positive sign after a slightly bad month.
On Friday, during the European morning, Eurozone’s final inflation rate is to be released for February. The rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at +1.2% YoY. As the rate is at its final print it could get a muted reaction from the markets, however, it gains on importance as it is the first release after ECB rate decision to remain on hold and his projection that the inflation rate is to hover around +1.5% YoY in 2018.
All trading involves risk. It is possible to lose all your capital
This information is not considered as investment advice or investment recommendation but instead a marketing communication. This material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.