NZD/JPY in neutral bias after climbing towards 20-DMA; outlook still bearish.
NZD/JPY is looking more neutral as prices have climbed towards the 20-day simple moving average (MA) after bouncing off the lower Bollinger band. However, the 20-day MA also acted as resistance, hence the upside momentum appears to have run out of steam as prices have been attempting and failing to close above the line in the past three sessions.
The neutral bias in the near term is also supported by the RSI, which has been hovering below the 50-neutral level in the past few days but failing to cross into positive territory.
Should the pair manage to strengthen its positive momentum, the next resistance could come around 77.60 (a previous congestion area). A break above 77.60 would shift the bias to a more bullish one and open the way towards the 50-day MA, which is converging with the upper Bollinger band around the 78.15 mark. Above this level, the next target could come in the 79.25-79.50 region, bound by a previous resistance point and the 200-day MA.
However, if prices are unable to break into the upper half of the Bollinger band in the next few sessions, the risk would shift back to the downside, with the lower Bollinger band once again coming into focus, as well as the 16-month low of 75.52 from March 23. A drop below 75.52 would signal a resumption of the longer-term downtrend that’s been developing since July 2017. The next key support to watch lower down is 74.25 (highlighted by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the up-leg from 75.91 to 78.60).
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