Media suggested that US secretary of commerce Wilbur Ross and EU trade commissioner Malmstrom will meet next week to discuss tariffs. In a telephone conversation yesterday, the EU official reiterated EU hopes to be exempted from the US steel and aluminum tariffs. US official Peter Navarro, stated yesterday that tariffs could be applied without triggering a trade war, while on other news Germany’s Chancellor Merkel expressed hopes for the talks on US tariffs. Should there be further positive headlines about the issue, USD could strengthen. EUR/USD moved in a sideways manner yesterday with some bearish tendencies breaking the 1.2355 (R1) support line (now turned to resistance). We see the case for the pair to continue to trade in that manner today as the market seems to have started positioning itself ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting and the US industrial production data for February, due to be released today could support the USD. Should the bears have the upper hand we could see the pair breaking the 1.2230 (S1) support line. On the other hand, should the bulls take the reins we could see the pair breaking the 1.2355 (R1) resistance line and hover above it.
- Support: 1.2230(S1), 1.2100(S2), 1.1920(S3)
- Resistance: 1.2355(R1), 1.2495(R2), 1.2680(R3)
Brexit talks about to begin next week
Britain’s Brexit secretary David Davis stated yesterday, that a deal on a transition period could be made with the EU next week, as negotiations restart on Monday. Davis also mentioned that the UK aims at EU taking a flexible, open and broad approach to negotiations for the future trade relationships between the EU and the UK. Analysts predict, however, that if the deadlock of the Irish border issue is not broken it could overshadow any progress made. Further positive headlines about the EU and the UK coming closer to a deal could support the GBP. GBP/USD trade in a sideways manner with some bearish tendencies, testing the 1.3915 (S1) support line. We see the case for the pair to continue to trade in the same manner today as again financial data could support the USD. Should the pair come under selling interest we could see it breaking the 1.3915 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.3775 (S2) support barrier. Should it come under buying interest we could see it breaking the 1.4040 (R1) resistance level.
- Support: 1.3915(S1), 1.3775(S2), 1.3620(S3)
- Resistance: 1.4040(R1), 1.4168(R2), 1.4345(R3)
As for today’s other economic highlights:
In the European session, we get Eurozone’s final HICP rate for February, as well as Bank of England’s quarterly statement. From the US we get the building permits and housing starts for February as well as the Industrial production for February which could support the USD somewhat. Later on, we get Michigan’s Preliminary Consumer Confidence indicator and last but not least we get the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig count. Please be advised that previous Friday the indicator influenced Oil prices as it showed that the US active oil rigs had decreased.
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