Riksbank is expected to announce it’s interest rate decision today and is expected to remain on hold at -0.5%. SEKOIS imply that the market has priced in Riksbank to remain on hold with a probability of 85%. Financial data and fundamentals support the case for the bank to remain on hold as well. The focus may shift to accompanying statement and the press conference. The tone is expected to be neutral, maybe even a bit dovish.SEK could be weakened by the developments.
- Support: 9.8594(S1), 9.8035(S2), 9.7115(S3)
- Resistance: 9.9716(R1), 10.0300(R2), 10.1500(R3)
A speech to Unite a Kingdom
The first speech about Brexit is to be delivered today by Boris Johnson. Media reports suggest that the speech may call for unity and present Brexit not as “grounds for fear but hope”. Other headlines suggest that the UK’s border and immigration system is unprepared for Brexit, providing further uncertainty. The EU side, on the other hand, seems to be focusing more on inner politics, as France’s Macron concentrates on EU reforms and Germany is still struggling to form a government. We expect the speech to overshadow any other Brexit development today and its content to create a positive sentiment which could support the GBP.
- Support: 1.3750(S1), 1.3590(S2), 1.3338(S3)
- Resistance: 1.4040(R1), 1.4168(R2), 1.4325(R3)
Today’s other economic highlights:
Germany: Preliminary GDP for Q4, Survey:+0.6% QoQ Prior: +0.8% QoQ, 07:00 (GMT), neutral to negative for EUR
Germany: Final HICP for January, Survey:+1.4% YoY Prior:+1.4% YoY, 07:00 (GMT), neutral for the EUR
Sweden: Riksbank Rate Decision, Survey:-0.50% Prior: -0.50% YoY, 08:30 (GMT), neutral to negative for SEK
Eurozone: Preliminary GDP for Q4, Survey:+0.6% QoQ Prior:+0.6% QoQ, 10:00 (GMT), neutral to negative for EUR
US: Headline CPI rate for January, Survey:+1.9% YoY Prior:+2.0% YoY, 13:30 (GMT), negative for USD
US: Core CPI rate for January, Survey:+1.7% YoY Prior:+1.8% YoY, 13:30 (GMT) negative for USD
US: Crude Oil Inventories, Survey:+2.600M Prior:+1.895M, 15:30 (GMT)
Speakers: ECB Board Member Yves Mersch speaks
All trading involves risk. It is possible to lose all your capital
This information is not considered as investment advice or investment recommendation but instead a marketing communication. This material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.