Daily Analysis | 29 January 2018
Officials seem to have made some progress regarding the NAFTA Agreement and a will hold a press conference later on today. US Trade representative Lighthizer stated that he is hopeful about the talks, however, realises that a lot of work needs to be done. Meanwhile, media report that a collapse in the NAFTA agreement could hurt heavily US farmers. Mexico Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said that there is a window of opportunity to strike a deal from February to July. We expect any positive outcome of the negotiations to strengthen USD, CAD, MXN.
- Support: 1.2250(S1), 1.2100(S2), 1.9300(S3)
- Resistance: 1.2350(R1), 1.2450(R2), 1.2585(R3)
BREXIT negotiations could accelerate
UK Brexit negotiators could attempt to launch a new round of Brexit negotiations as early as next week in an effort to agree on a swift deal on the Transition period. The EU negotiating team replied it’s readiness to accept the UK team anytime this week. The aim is for an interim accord by March 22-23 when the EU leaders will hold a summit. On other news, the Brexit law is about to be discussed in the UK upper house as pressures on Theresa May increase. Any positive news regarding the Brexit negotiations could have a positive impact on GBP.
- Support: 1.4040(S1), 1.3875(S2), 1.3785(S3)
- Resistance: 1.4175(R1), 1.4325(R2), 1.4460(R3)
Today’s other economic highlights
US: PCE for December Forecast: +0.4% MoM Prior: +0.6% MoM 13:30(GMT), could weaken the USD
New Zealand: Trade Balance for December, Prior: -3.44B YoY 21.45 (GMT), Any reading lower than -3.44B could weaken NZD
This Weeks Highlights
Tuesday: for Germany Germany’s HICP which is expected to remain unchanged and also the US Consumer Confidence which is expected to rise to 123.0 from 122.1 Wednesday: from the US we expect the FOMC Rate Decision to remain unchanged Friday: Non-Farm Payroll is expected to rise to 175K from previous months lows of 148K
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