Daily Analysis | 11 January 2018
Media reports suggested that Canadian officials are convinced that the US will leave the NAFTA agreement. The comments cast doubts about prospects on negotiations to modernise NAFTA, which are to have a sixth-round on January 23-28. In the past, president Trump had repeatedly threatened to abandon NAFTA, unless major changes were made and were recently quoted saying “I want out” as current negotiations seemed to produce little results. It remains uncertain, however, if USA would quit NAFTA even if Trump gave the required six-month warning. On the Mexican side of the trilateral negotiations, there were no comments on the issue but analysts predict that should Trump trigger the six-month leaving process, Mexico may pull out of the negotiations. Analysts predict that the US may ultimately not pull out of the agreement, but the market has extensive concerns and a high amount of uncertainty just showed up on the horizon. USD/CAD rose substantially yesterday, reflecting the recent NAFTA developments, however, it stabilised this morning at the 1.2520 (S1) support line. We see the case for the pair to continue trading in a sideways manner, however, it may be quite sensitive to any further developments on the issue. Also, any good readings regarding today’s US financial data may influence the pair towards a further rise. Should the pair come under renewed buying interest it could break the 1.2593 (R1) resistance level and aim for the 1.2650 (R2) resistance hurdle. On the other hand, should the pair come under selling interest it could break the 1.2520 support level and head for the 1.2450(S2) support zone.
- Support: 1.2520 (S1), 1.2450 (S2), 1.2350 (S3)
- Resistance: 1.2593 (R1), 1.2650 (R2), 1.2710 (R3)
South Korea to ban cryptocurrency trading
The South Korean justice minister said yesterday, that the government is preparing a bill to ban cryptocurrency trading. A press official stated that the proposed ban was announced after “enough discussion” with other government agencies. The fact that there was “enough discussion” is evident of the amount of certainty about the bill within the S.Korean government. It seems to be the case that finance ministry and regulators agree on the proposed ban. Police and tax authorities raided cryptocurrency exchanges for alleged tax evasion. Concerns were raised as there seems to be a “herd” like behavior in the cryptocurrency market of S.Korea, which increases social risks and the increased use of such assets could lead to a surge in crime. In the US crypto-front, media reports suggest that the Senate will have a hearing next month with countries’ top markets regulators about the cryptocurrency market, amid concerns of a possible bubble and the risks posed to the financial system from cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin dropped during today’s Asian morning reflecting the news, and broke the 14,000 (R1) support level (now turned to resistance) and reached as low as 12383 USD. We see the case for the cryptocurrency to recover somewhat and then continue to trade in a sideways manner. Should the bulls take the driver’s seat we could see bitcoin prices breaking the 14000 (R1) resistance barrier and head towards the 15580 (R2) resistance level. On the other hand, should the bears have the upper hand, the cryptocurrency could break the 12000 (S1) support level and aim for the 10500 (S2) support barrier.
- Support: 12000 (S1), 10500 (S2), 8920 (S3)
- Resistance: 14000 (R1), 15580 (R2), 17000 (R3)
Other economic highlights
During the European morning, the German GDP figures for 2017 and Eurozone’s Industrial production data for November will be released. Later on, we get the US PPI figures (both core and headline) for December.As for speakers Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley speaks
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