Daily Analysis | 21 December 2017
The US tax reform passed the voting test of the Senate and the House of Representatives yesterday Wednesday and has marked the first legislative win of the Trump administration. It’s not clear when president Trump will actually sign the new tax law, but there are expectations for it to happen by the end of next week. Media reports suggest however that the new tax plan is still unpopular with voters expecting the new tax law to benefit the rich and not the middle class. Should this perception not be overturned there could be costs for the Republicans in votes. On the international level as media reports suggested, Australia’s Finance minister Mathias Cormann voiced the need for Australia to follow the US example and that the “Australian parliament passes a more competitive business tax rate”. Other media headlines report that Republicans aren’t quite sure if they have the necessary votes in the House of Representatives to avoid a government shutdown on Friday, sparking new political uncertainty.
EUR/USD rose yesterday and broke the 1.1880 (R1) resistance level for a short period of time, found resistance at the 1.1900 level, surrendered any posted gains and continued to trade between the 1.1880(R1) resistance line and support level 1.1820 (S1). Should it come under renewed buying interest, the pair could break the 1.1880 (R1) resistance level again and aim for the 1.1910 (R2) resistance level. On the other hand, should it come under further selling interest the EUR/USD could break the 1.1820 (S1) support level and aim for the 1.1795 (S2) zone.
- Support: 1.1820 (S1), 1.1795 (S2), 1.1725 (S3)
- Resistance: 1.1880 (R1), 1.1910 (R2), 1.1960 (R3)
Nervous calmness for Bitcoin
As for Bitcoin, there is still no clear fundamental story as to the recent movement of Bitcoin however media mentioned that a possible reason about the recent drop is that, since yesterday, Coinbase exchange platform is also offering Bitcoin cash to potential investors. On other news, Indian authorities are weighing how to regulate cryptocurrencies and in general, the international stand as presented in the press recently for Bitcoin seems to split into roughly three categories:
The ones that embrace it such as Japan and North Korea.
The ones which still seem uncertain such as the US and UK.
The ones which issue warnings such as the Europeans and Singapore recently did.
In the meanwhile Bitcoin dropped somewhat yesterday, breaking the 15580 (S1) dollar support zone briefly only to regain any losses and continue to trade below the 17000 (R1) resistance level and above the aforementioned support level. It should be noted that the cryptocurrency rose above the 200-hour moving average but not above the 100-hour moving average. Should the bears take the driver’s seat bitcoin could break the 15580 support level again and aim for the 14000 support zone. Should the bulls take the reins again the pair could break the 17000 (R1) resistance level and aim for the 19500 (R2) resistance territory.
- Support: 15580 (S1), 14000 (S2), 12000 (S3)
- Resistance: 17000 (R1),19500 (R2), 21000 (R3)
In Today’s other economic data From the US we get the final GDP figure for Q3 and from Canada, we get the CPI rate and Retail sales, both for November which could prove to be market movers for Canadian crosses as both are forecasted to accelerate. Later on, we get Eurozone’s consumer confidence preliminary indicator for December.
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